A soft end to 2021 nearly cradled the Miami Dolphins all the way to the playoffs, but the 2022 slate is not as cushy. If the Dolphins want to make the tournament, they’ll have to crawl over hot coals and battle sub-zero wastelands in the final two months of the season.
Miami’s NFL odds have them on par with last year, even with Mike McDaniel taking over the head coaching chair after an ugly exit from Brian Flores. McDaniel has surrounded quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with dangerous speed and installs his zone running schemes and all the misdirection and RPO that comes along with it.
We see how things will shakedown in South Beach with our Miami Dolphins 2022 betting preview.
Miami Dolphins futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +5,000 |
| To win conference | +2,500 |
| To win division | +475 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 9 (Under -130) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +150 / No -170 |
Best futures bet: No playoffs (-170)
The lookahead lines have Miami favored in eight games in 2022 (with Week 10 vs. Cleveland OTB) and the best spot to pick up enough wins to qualify for the playoffs is the first half of the schedule. Six of those games as the betting chalk occur before Week 10.
The hook is that you have plenty of new playmakers and blockers working in a foreign offense that requires attention to detail. You also have a quarterback being asked to leave his comfort zone of short outside strikes and throw more in the middle and further downfield.
There’s bound to be some growing pains in those opening weeks, which could sour Miami’s postseason chances before the nasty part of the sked shows up. The Dolphins close the campaign with four of the final six games on the road, including three straight road games between Week 13 and 15: at 49ers, Chargers, and Bills. Yikes.
Miami Dolphins betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
Flores’ departure could have an impact on this defense, but the Fins managed to retain his top man Josh Boyer to run this stop unit. The Dolphins mix in different looks, from 4-3 to 3-4, and retained the foundation of a unit that finished 10th in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and ranked fifth in sacks with a pressure rate of 28.5% (third highest).
The 2021 squad went 7-2 against the spread in the final nine games of the season, thanks in large part to the defense checking foes to 17 or fewer points in six of those games. If Miami is going to make any money against the spread — especially early on — the stop unit will have to pick up the slack for an offense in incubation.
What will lose bets: Off-track offense
Everything looks good on paper. McDaniel is an offensive savant and brought in some burners to blaze a trail to the end zone. The team made a massive trade for Tyreek Hill, brought in fleet-footed running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, and bolstered a bad offensive line with tackle Terron Armstead. The Fins also added underrated wide receiver Cedric Wilson to a passing game that features Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki.
That has people excited and the market reacting, with Miami drawing shorter spreads against some of the NFL’s top teams and seeing its totals rise with nine lookahead numbers of 46 points or higher. However, so much hinges on Tua’s maturation and how quickly McDaniel can cook up chemistry.
It won’t be an easy transition. Within the first seven games, the Dolphins face four teams ranked among the top dozen in EPA allowed/play last season and two of the other defenses in that span belong to the Ravens and Steelers — both expected to sit among the elite in 2022.
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Miami Dolphins game-by-game odds
Like I said, the Dolphins have to make hay before the winter sets in and oddsmakers expect them to have at least seven wins by the time December rolls around — if the lookahead line are any indication.
Miami is also an underdog of +4 or shorter in five other games. The team went 7-5 straight up and 8-4 ATS when getting +4 or less in three seasons under Flores. However, in 2022, it catches those handfuls of points against some very good teams: +4 at Ravens, +4 vs. Bills, +3.5 at Bengals, +2.5 vs. Green Bay.
The Dolphins’ standard strength of schedule ranked out 21st, based on last year’s win percentages. Foes like the Jets, Lions, and Steelers are all ripe for improvement, though. My QB SOS was not so kind to the Fins, who finished with the 11th toughest slate of rival QBs, including a possible Week 10 run in with Deshaun Watson, should he get a shorter suspension.
| 1 | vs. New England | -3 | 44.5 |
| 2 | @ Baltimore | +4 | 46 |
| 3 | vs. Buffalo | +4 | 50 |
| 4 | @ Cincinatti | +3.5 | 46 |
| 5 | @ N.Y. Jets | -3 | 46.5 |
| 6 | vs. Minnesota | -3 | 47 |
| 7 | vs. Pittsburgh | -5.5 | 45 |
| 8 | @ Detroit | -3.5 | 46.5 |
| 9 | @ Chicago | -3 | 43.5 |
| 10 | vs. Cleveland | OTB | OTB |
| 11 | BYE | ||
| 12 | vs. Houston | -8 | 45 |
| 13 | @ San Francisco | +4.5 | 44.5 |
| 14 | @ L.A. Chargers | +5 | 49 |
| 15 | @ Buffalo | +7.5 | 47 |
| 16 | vs. Green Bay | +2.5 | 48 |
| 17 | @ New England | +2.5 | 42 |
| 18 | vs. N.Y. Jets | -5.5 | 45 |
Miami Dolphins pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
I don’t believe in Tua, but I do believe in McDaniel and the weapons they have put around him. This defense overachieved with Flores, so this could be an Over team this year.
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