Unless you’re a Niners fan or laying the points with the home favorite, you’re likely cheering for the Detroit Lions when they visit the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Championship Sunday later tonight.
Detroit has captured the hearts of football faithful beyond the Motor City, as the once-floundering franchise tries to end years of suffering on Sunday night.
The Lions, who have been betting favorites in all but three of their 19 games this season, find themselves as big road underdogs, with the NFL odds giving Detroit a touchdown in San Francisco.
I break down the point spread and the Over/Under as I give you my best NFL picks for Lions vs. 49ers on Sunday, January 28.
Make sure to also check out the Lions vs. 49ers weather and Jared Goff spotlight picks before placing your bets!
Lions vs 49ers odds
Lions vs 49ers predictions
The Detroit Lions could be considered “indoor cats” when you size up their recent — and not-so-recent — schedule.
And if you’ve ever been around someone with an indoor cat, you know that accidentally letting that reclusive feline outside is akin to pushing the “big red button.”
Sunday’s trip to Santa Clara will be the Lions’ first outdoor game in almost 50 days, going back to a Week 14 loss at Chicago. And looking down the calendar, the NFC Championship is just the second time Detroit will be under the heavens since October 22, when it lost at Baltimore in Week 7.
The Lions already see a bit of an offensive blip on the road, with their scoring average sliding down almost six points (24.1 points per away game), but that production takes a swan dive off the top rope in outdoor games.
Detroit’s offense has scored an average of just 17.8 points over its five games in open-air stadiums, compared to 30.75 average team points indoors. The Lions are 7-3 Over/Under in Ford Field and 3-1 O/U on the road in indoor venues, but just 2-3 O/U when playing outside.
Oddsmakers have the Lions’ team total set at 21.5 points for the NFC Championship. Detroit was 6-3 O/U with its team total at home and 3-1 O/U TT visiting indoor stadiums, but just 1-4 O/U TT outdoors, with those derivative numbers ranging between 20.5 to 24.5 points.
This notable split isn’t reliant on weather to play a role either. While the Week 14 trip to Chicago was played in the cold with wind gusts flirting with 20 mph, the Lions logged the bulk of the open-air contest before November in good conditions.
Outdoor venues are less “clean” and quick compared to indoor stadiums, especially when playing on grass versus artificial turf (Levi’s Stadium is natural grass). That makes a bigger difference to a speed-based offense like the Lions, who have fast receivers and some breakneck runners in the backfield. Overall, outdoor NFL games average about four points less than those contests played indoors.
Detroit’s yards per play takes a tumble to 5.05 outdoors (vs. 5.9 overall) and the points per play shrinks from 0.409 on average to just 0.251 outside, which is even a sharp decline from the overall road points per play clip of .355. The Lions were a collective 7 for 14 in the red zone over those five contests, well off their league-best 74.36% RZ TD rate at home.
Like most offenses, it begins and ends at quarterback. Jared Goff is playing the best football of his career in Motown, but has benefitted not only from a home-friendly schedule but also from those indoor venues.
Goff sees his production slip in the fresh air, with his completion rate dropping to 63.59% (70.2% indoors) and his yards per attempt at 6.47 (vs. 8.09 indoors), leading to a low passer rating of 87.9 (104.0 indoors).
Venue aside, Goff takes on one of the best pass defenses in the league. The San Francisco 49ers finished No. 6 in EPA allowed per dropback and gave up the fifth-fewest yards per attempt (5.9), with opposing QBs owning an average passer rating of 79.2 versus San Francisco.
With that in mind, I expect the Lions to go after the 49ers on the ground. San Francisco has been susceptible to the run or at least a little less stingy, giving up 4.2 yards per carry and finishing 26th in EPA allowed per handoff. That means shorter gains with the clock ticking.
And, per the game script, the 49ers could also turn to a plodding pace with the big spread, suggesting San Francisco will be protecting the lead in the second half. The Niners run the slowest tempo on offense in terms of seconds per play and smash into a Detroit defense that has been among the best run-stop units in the league. Again, tick, tick, tick.
San Francisco has held its opponents to 21 points or less in 13 of its 18 games this season, with seven of those results coming in Santa Clara.
My best bet: Lions team total Under 21.5 (-116 at FanDuel) 50% boost availablePicks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Lions vs 49ers same-game parlay
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The Lions are “indoor cats”, and the slow track in Santa Clara, along with the 49ers’ defense, will hold them below 21.5 points.
Goff doesn’t play his best football outdoors and the Niners have one of the best passing defenses in the land, allowing an average of only 1.2 TDs through the air.
Detroit will try to run the ball on the 49ers’ softer run stop, which means a lot of David Montgomery. Most player projections call for more than 46.5 rushing yards, with some expecting as many as 57 yards on the ground.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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