The Dallas Cowboys enter Week 5 with a laundry list of injuries and visit the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 2.5-point underdog after opening as a 1.5-point favorite. Justin Fields has the Steelers as the AFC North leaders while the 2-2 Cowboys look to put together back-to-back wins for the first time this season.
Coming off a monster performance in Week 4 vs. the Colts, George Pickens will be called upon to lead this Pittsburgh offense again in Week 5 with the injury to Jaylen Warren and a great matchup vs. the Cowboys, who made Daniel Jones look like a Pro Bowler in Week 4.
I dig into this cross-conference matchup and give my best Cowboys vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks for October 6.
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Cowboys vs Steelers SNF prediction
My best betGeorge Pickens Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
My analysisGeorge Pickens has been the best offensive player on the Pittsburgh Steelers this year. He’s put up at least 57 receiving yards in three of four games while ranking seventh in the league with a 28.2% target share and second in air-yards share at 53.5%. Pickens has 34% of the team’s receiving yards.
He is coming off a monster seven-catch, 113-yard game vs. the Colts. That game was indoors so there is a bump in output there, but Pickens has a great matchup at home vs. the Dallas Cowboys who are dealing with a ton of injuries on defense and also play zone coverage at a high rate.
First off, the ‘Boys will be without DL DeMarcus Lawrence and most likely LB Micah Parsons. Corner Trevon Diggs also popped up on the injury report Thursday, which is never great. He was listed as limited with an ankle injury.
Those are huge injuries for a defense that has been embarrassing this year and let Daniel Jones complete passes at will to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson last Thursday.
Next is the scheme. Dallas plays zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in football, which also benefits the Pittsburgh receiver. Dallas is giving up 5.7 yards per play (25th) and has injury issues at the corner position. Pickens is a zone-beater and ranks 10th in yards per route run vs. zone coverage, has a 29% target share vs. it, and a 60% win rate vs. zone.
Jaylen Warren has also been ruled out for the second straight game, and that could mean another Week 4-like workload for Pickens, who saw 11 targets on 34 dropbacks.
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Cowboys vs Steelers SNF same-game parlay
George Pickens 75+ receiving yardsCeeDee Lamb 75+ receiving yardsJustin Fields anytime TD
+1,400 at bet365
Pickens is set up well for a big day and to lead the Pittsburgh offense yet again thanks to Warren’s injury and the matchup vs. an injured Dallas defense.
CeeDee Lamb is in a similar position to rack up the targets with Brandin Cooks out. He’s averaging 98 yards per game over the last two seasons and the Steelers secondary just gave up 113 yards to Michael Pittman last week on just six receptions.
The biggest part of this SGP is the Justin Fields TD. He has been busy in the red zone this season and has cashed three rushing TDs over the last two weeks. He has also run inside the five-yard line five times over the last two weeks and will be a viable red-zone option with Warren ruled out.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cowboys vs Steelers odds
Cowboys vs Steelers live odds
Cowboys vs Steelers opening odds
- Spread: Dallas -1 | Pittsburgh +1
- Moneyline: Dallas -110 | Pittsburgh -110
- Over/Under: Over 42 | Under 42
Cowboys vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This was a pick ’em on September 24 but thanks to a list of key injuries to the Cowboys and some market trust with the Steelers, the home side has stretched to a 2.5-point favorite as of Friday.
- The total took some Over money midweek as the 42-point total was pushed to 44 as of Friday afternoon.
- There is a chance of showers during this game with Covers’ weather indicator calling for a 55% chance of rain with 10-mph winds. It could be all-day wet in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
- Pittsburgh enters Week 5 3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U while the Cowboys have been the opposite, going 1-2-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U.
